Now that the referendum for the United Kingdom to remain or leave the European Union is over the only certainty is that there will be chaos for the next few months. It is not inevitable that Britain must leave the EU. Whether and how she leaves depends on the unpredictable events that will unfold following the referendum. The outcome of the referendum is unlikely to serve the expectations of the remain or the leave camps. It was an exercise in political opportunism that will forever be a stigma on the record of Prime Minister David Cameron.

Leaders galvanize their constituents towards a common goal that serves the interest of the majority. Unfortunately some politicians exploit the differences between constituents to remain in office. Sadly David Cameron is not a leader and a poor politician. He is unable to control his party nor stay in office. A leader must command the respect of party members before he can win support from the population at large. Calling for a referendum to get rebellious party members to toe the party line only demonstrates David Cameron’s incompetence. It is not surprising that he was ignored by large numbers of his own constituents and he does not deserve any credit for the overwhelming support to remain in the EU by Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The referendum is not legally binding and has to be ratified by Parliament first before invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. That will trigger an irreversible course leading to UK exiting the EU in two years. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote it is clear that there were many misstatements made by the leave camp. Their leaders do not want a swift exit and hope to negotiate concessions from the EU to retain many of the benefits of membership. To quote Boris Johnson “This does not mean that the United Kingdom will be in any way less united, it does not mean it will be any less European”. But Nicola Surgeon already said “As things stand, Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against her will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable”. It will be clear to those that voted for leave that when they achieve their aim it will be on terms that are painful and not what they were promised. But those who voted to remain feel that they have been deceived by fraudulent actions by the leaders of the leave camp. They are unable to keep their campaign promises but bind the entire population to a decision that was supported by only a third of the electorate, taking into account those that did not vote in the referendum. Even many of those that voted to leave the EU are likely to change their position when they fully comprehend the impact of such a move.

This colossal blunder has brought to the surface the many fault lines in British society and exaggerated the divisions without offering any tangible solutions. The young versus the old, the highly educated versus less educated, Scotland and Northern Ireland versus England and Wales and London versus the rest of England. The leave campaign promised prosperity and greater control over immigration and Britain’s own affairs. Their supporters are rapidly finding out you cannot have your cake and eat it too. The continued prosperity of the United Kingdom depends much on London’s success as the center of global finance and innovation. It is essential to maintain access to a larger European market and the ability to attract technology talent to her shores. UK cannot force the EU to make the concessions it requires to maintain London’s preeminent status. The kind of talent that the UK must attract are more likely to leave when they find it increasingly a xenophobic place. London’s pain will not be England’s gain either.

The outlook is murky and can get a lot worse unless strong action is taken to prevent a further slide. The politicians that created the mess must face the reality that the referendum was hasty and did not provide clarity to the British public on the implications of such a major decision. In the current circumstances it is best to go for a cooling period now and call for a second referendum after negotiating with the EU on the terms to remain closely aligned to the EU as an alternative to being a member. While logical a second referendum may not be likely as politicians generally put their personal interest before the interest of their constituents despite claims to the contrary.

This will be Boris’s chance to get a shot at being the PM. But is it by no means certain as there could be a strong faction within the Conservative party that would want to stop him for creating the mess that has disrupted their lives and possibly prematurely ended their careers. Even with the support of the majority of the Conservative Party it will be difficult for the new leader to hang on in office for long before calling for another general election. Members of his own party may co-operate with the opposition to bring him down. An interim leader of the UK will not be able to get concessions from the other EU members without agreeing to terms that are unacceptable to the leave camp. By the next general election it will be very clear that leaving the EU without a negotiated agreement will cause considerable pain and possibly the break up the United Kingdom. But even an agreement will not deliver all the benefits promised and stands the risk that Scotland and Northern Ireland will want to leave and remain part of the EU.

The EU is unlikely to agree to negotiations unless the UK invokes Article 50 first. But it might agree to further discussions if David Cameron or his successor tells the British public that deciding to leave the EU without first understanding the exit terms will be disastrous and a second referendum would be called with clarity on the details should UK decide to leave the EU. The UK public clearly deserves better than their politicians. Hopefully common sense, a quality sadly lacking in politicians will prevail.